JPY Buoyed Ahead of G7

The yen rallied across the board in the Friday session amid a slide in global equities, pushing the sterling beneath the 235-level and the euro under the 164-mark. The greenback, which initially tumbled against the euro and sterling, recovered amid profit taking heading into this weekend’s G7 Finance Ministers meeting. We’re not anticipating the G7 communiqué to single out dollar weakness, but do expect increased pressure on China to hasten currency flexibility. It will be important to focus closely on post-meeting commentary from Eurozone officials as there will be scope for criticism of recent euro strength impeding on trade competitiveness.

UK’s Finance Minister Alistair Darling said that while there was a mix of views among the G7 on exchange rates, he reiterated that forex levels should be determined by markets. Meanwhile, Canada’s Finance Minister Flaherty said he would not be surprised to see stronger language in the communiqué on China’s foreign exchange policy. Further, he expects vigorous discussion on the topic at the meeting. We look for the yen to remain buoyed heading into the meeting, given the currency’s characteristic to trade as a proxy to China’s yuan.

The dollar’s near-term direction will likely remain linked to sentiment over upcoming Fed policy decisions. Earlier in the session, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a 98% chance of a rate cut at the end of the month, up from over 70% yesterday and just over 30% a week earlier. Recent economic data continues to point towards further deterioration in the housing market, but have yet to reveal any spillover effects on the consumer. Next week’s US economic calendar is light but will provide additional gauges on the housing market, with the releases consisting of existing home sales, new home sales, durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims.

Fed Chairman Bernanke said central bank predictability was important in making long-term rates respond to Fed actions. He reiterated that central banks should strive for transparency, predictability and avoid overreactions. However, he provided little insight into the FOMC’s policy deliberations in the coming weeks.