The dollar moves in the opposite direction with global stock market since last week as the extent of investors risk aversion directs the flow of money.
The dollar weakened against the euro and sterling in early Tuesday when rising Asia and European equities eased concern over credit market. However, US stocks dipped near the closing bell today, raising the attractiveness of safe heaven, the US dollar. The euro is trading in narrow range between 1.3680 and 1.3726 against the dollar on Tuesday. The sterling climbed more than 100 pips to as high as 2.0377 versus the dollar, catching up yesterday¡¯s lag with the euro strength.
The dollar was little changed after a run of mixed US data this morning as there is some caution after last week¡¯s huge correction in the dollar. US PCE index rose 0.1% in June, compared with a 0.5% reading in the prior month. Core PCE index came out at 0.1%, below the estimate of 0.2%. US personal income maintained a growth rate of 0.4% in June, falling short of a call for 0.5%. US personal spending only rose by 0.1% in June, far below the forecast of 0.2% and a previous reading of 0.5%. Besides, Chicago PMI fell from 60.2 to 53.4 in July, worse than the expectation of 58. US consumer confidence index increased from 103.9 to 112.6, beating the consensus of 105.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
FX Awaits Barrage of Data
At 1:00 AM Japan June Housing Starts y/y (exp –3.2%, prev –10.7%)
At 2:00 AM Germany June Retail Sales m/m (exp 1.0%, prev –1.8%)
Germany June Retail Sales y/y (exp –1.7%, prev –3.7%)
At 4:00 AM Germany July Unemployment Rate (exp 9.0%, prev 9.1%)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone July Business Climate (exp 1.46, prev 1.54)
Eurozone July HICP flash y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 1.9%)
Eurozone June Unemployment Rate (exp 7.0%, prev 7.0%)
At 5:30 AM UK July GfK Survey (exp –4.0, prev –3.0)
At 8:30 AM US June core PCE m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
US June core PCE y/y (exp n/f, prev 1.9%)
US June PCE index m/m (exp n/f, prev 0.5%)
US June PCE index y/y (exp n/f, prev 2.3%)
US June Consumption (exp 0.2%, prev 0.5%)
US June Personal Income (exp 0.5%, prev 0.4%)
US Q2 Employment Cost Index (exp 0.9%, prev 0.8%)
Canada May GDP m/m (exp 0.4%, prev 0.3%)
At 9:45 AM US July Chicago PMI (exp 58.0, prev 60.2)
At 10:00 AM US July Consumer Confidence (exp 105.0, prev 103.9)
The dollar continued to give back gains in early Tuesday trading, slipping through 1.37 against the euro and falling beneath 2.03 versus the sterling. The coming session will see a barrage of economic reports for traders to assess the strength of the economies in the Eurozone, US and Canada. The greenback’s rebound from last week may be coming to an end, as traders are poised to resume the currency’s downtrend against the majors.
US economic reports due out include the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index, June consumption, personal income, Q2 employment cost index, July Chicago PMI and July consumer confidence. The monthly core PCE figure is seen edging up slightly to 0.2% from 0.1%. Consumption for June is forecasted to slip to 0.2%, down from 0.5%, while personal income is expected to edge up slightly to 0.5% versus 0.4%. The Chicago PMI report is seen falling to 58.0, down from June at 60.2. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence is expected to improve to 105.0, down from 103.9.
At 2:00 AM Germany June Retail Sales m/m (exp 1.0%, prev –1.8%)
Germany June Retail Sales y/y (exp –1.7%, prev –3.7%)
At 4:00 AM Germany July Unemployment Rate (exp 9.0%, prev 9.1%)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone July Business Climate (exp 1.46, prev 1.54)
Eurozone July HICP flash y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 1.9%)
Eurozone June Unemployment Rate (exp 7.0%, prev 7.0%)
At 5:30 AM UK July GfK Survey (exp –4.0, prev –3.0)
At 8:30 AM US June core PCE m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
US June core PCE y/y (exp n/f, prev 1.9%)
US June PCE index m/m (exp n/f, prev 0.5%)
US June PCE index y/y (exp n/f, prev 2.3%)
US June Consumption (exp 0.2%, prev 0.5%)
US June Personal Income (exp 0.5%, prev 0.4%)
US Q2 Employment Cost Index (exp 0.9%, prev 0.8%)
Canada May GDP m/m (exp 0.4%, prev 0.3%)
At 9:45 AM US July Chicago PMI (exp 58.0, prev 60.2)
At 10:00 AM US July Consumer Confidence (exp 105.0, prev 103.9)
The dollar continued to give back gains in early Tuesday trading, slipping through 1.37 against the euro and falling beneath 2.03 versus the sterling. The coming session will see a barrage of economic reports for traders to assess the strength of the economies in the Eurozone, US and Canada. The greenback’s rebound from last week may be coming to an end, as traders are poised to resume the currency’s downtrend against the majors.
US economic reports due out include the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index, June consumption, personal income, Q2 employment cost index, July Chicago PMI and July consumer confidence. The monthly core PCE figure is seen edging up slightly to 0.2% from 0.1%. Consumption for June is forecasted to slip to 0.2%, down from 0.5%, while personal income is expected to edge up slightly to 0.5% versus 0.4%. The Chicago PMI report is seen falling to 58.0, down from June at 60.2. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence is expected to improve to 105.0, down from 103.9.
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