Thursday, July 5, 2007

FX Quiet, Awaits ECB, BoE

At 1:00 AM Japan May Leading Indicator (exp n/f, prev 18.2)
Japan May Coincident Indicator (exp n/f, prev 65.0)
At 4:30 AM UK May Manufacturing Production m/m (exp 0.3%, prev 0.3%)
UK May Manufacturing Production y/y (exp 0.9%, prev 1.3%)
UK May Industrial Production m/m (exp 0.3%, prev 0.3%)
UK May Industrial Production y/y (exp 0.3%, prev 0.4%)
At 6:00 AM Germany May Industrial Production m/m (exp 0.5%, prev –1.2%)
At 7:00 AM Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision (exp 5.75%, prev 5.5%)
At 7:45 AM ECB Monetary Policy Decision (exp 4.25%, prev 4.0%)
At 8:15 AM US June ADP Payrolls (exp 100k, prev 97k)
At 8:30 AM Canada Building Permits (exp 5.6%, prev –8.4%)
ECB President Trichet’s Press Conference

The dollar continues to trade on weak footing versus the majors, mired near 26-year lows against the sterling and around the 1.36-level against the euro. Central Bank monetary policy announcements will garner the lion’s share of market attention in the coming session, as traders eagerly await the rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The sterling remains favored, hovering near its highest level in 26-years as markets anticipate further tightening from the BoE over the coming months to combat lingering inflationary pressure in the economy.

The US economic calendar for Thursday is light, seeing only the release of the June ADP payrolls report – which is forecasted to remain largely unchanged up 3k to 100k. Traders will also analyze the ADP payrolls as a proxy to Friday’s more important US jobs report. The June non-farm payrolls figure is expected to decline to 120k, from 157k in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.5%.

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