Thursday, July 26, 2007

USD Buoyed Ahead of Data

At 2:00 AM UK July Nationwide House Prices (exp 10.6%, prev 11.1%)
At 4:00 AM Eurozone June M3 Money Supply (exp 10.7%, prev 10.7%)
Germany July Ifo Expectations (exp 102.0, prev 102.8)
Germany July Ifo Current Conditions (exp 111.0, prev 111.4)
At 8:30 AM US June New Home Sales (exp 895k units, prev 915k units)
US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 310.0k, prev 301.0k)
US June Durable Goods Orders (exp 1.8%, prev –2.4%)

The dollar remains firm against the majors, holding onto yesterday’s gains as traders posture for strong US economic data over the next few sessions. The trade-weighted dollar index managed to bounce off the key 80-level, finding reprieve from aggressive selling over recent weeks. The greenback’s recovery was in large part due to unwinding in the carry trades, dragging the euro and sterling lower across the board.

In the coming session, markets will digest US weekly jobless claims, June new home sales, and durable goods orders. Weekly jobless claims are seen edging up slightly to 310k, from 301k a week earlier. Although the dollar was resilient to yesterday’s disappointing existing home sales, which tumbled to its lowest level since 2002 – it reminds traders of the precarious state of the US economy. Attention will shift to today’s new home sales that are expected to decline to 895k units in June versus 915k units a month earlier. Meanwhile, boding well for the greenback are forecasts for a sharp reversal in June durable goods orders from May’s 2.4% decline, jumping by 1.8%.

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