EUR/USD

EUR/USD edges further lower to 1.3643 today but stabilizes as no follow through selling is seen yet. Though, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.3713 minor resistance holds. Further decline is still in favor. As discussed before, EUR/USD should still be bounded in consolidation that started at 1.3851 and hence, another test of 1.3567/3658 support zone is expected to be seen before completing such consolidation. However, downside is also expected to be contained there.

Above 1.3713 minor resistance resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and probably bring stronger recovery. But firm break of 1.3839 resistance is needed to confirm rise from 1.3262 has resumed. Otherwise, choppy sideway trading is still in progress.

In the bigger picture, firstly, the momentum of the rise from 1.3262 is seen stronger than the prior rally from 1.2865 to 1.3681. Secondly, the falling trend line in both daily MACD and RSI were broken, negating the bearish divergence conditions. In other words, the underlying bullishness in EUR/USD could be much stronger than we originally thought and the rise from 1.3262 could be part of another set of medium term rally instead of the last advance of a 5 wave rally from 1.2483 that we originally thought.

Focus remains on 1.3822/3851 resistance (100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822). Sustained trading above this level will add much weight to the case that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 is indeed resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 (00 low). That is, further rise should be seen in medium term towards 95 high of 1.4523 with much chance to extend further to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004.

On the downside, break of 1.3481 will warn that 1.3851 could indeed be an important medium term top. 1.3262 low will be back into focus and break will indicate that medium term rally from 1.1639 has likely completed after being limited by 1.3822 resistance as originally expected.