At 1:00 AM Japan March Leading Indicator (exp n/f, prev 27.3)
Japan March Coincident Indicator (exp n/f, prev 30.0)
At 2:00 AM Germany March Trade Balance (exp 14.5 bln euros, prev 13.8 bln euros)
At 2:15 PM FOMC Monetary Policy Announcement (exp 5.25%, prev 5.25%)
The major currencies remain mixed early in the week ahead of central banks policy announcements beginning later today. The dollar is firmer against the euro and sterling, holding steady around 1.3540 and 1.9890, respectively. We remain biased toward further weakness in the greenback over the rest of this week, much in part due to divergent central banks outlooks on interest rates.
The FOMC will announce the results of its policy-setting meeting at 2:15 PM New York time. The overwhelming consensus view, including our own, is for the Fed to stand pat at 5.25% and issue a statement largely in line with the March policy statement. The recent slate of economic data since the previous meeting has been mixed, as GDP, manufacturing, housing and jobs have slowed while inflation continues to hover near its highs – warranting the Fed to maintain its neutral stance with caution towards risks to inflation.
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