Thursday, May 10, 2007

US Jobs Takes Center Stage

At 8:30 AMUS April Average Work Week (exp 33.9, prev 33.9)
US April Average Earnings (exp 0.3%, prev 0.3%)
US April Unemployment Rate (exp 4.5%, prev 4.4%)
US April non-farm payrolls (exp 100k, prev 180k)
At 10:00 AM Canada April Ivey PMI (exp n/f, prev 67.7)

The greenback’s recovery extended into a quiet early Friday session with the Japanese market closed for holiday and traders sidelined ahead of the closely watched US jobs data later today. The dollar firmed higher versus the euro, rising to 1.3537 and edging up to 120.44 against the yen, its highest level in 2-months. This past week’s US reports have been mixed, but given the oversold levels against the majors, traders have used upbeat data to square positions thereby prompting broad based dollar recovery.

Whether this optimism can continue hinges on the April non-farm payrolls, due out at 8:30 AM New York time. Consensus estimates are calling for payrolls to grow by 100k, down considerably from the prior month. Released earlier this week, the ADP payrolls, often viewed as a proxy to the NFP, undershot analyst estimates and grew at its slowest pace in nearly 4 years – up by 64k. Further softening in the jobs outlook would also pave the way for a Fed rate cut over the coming months, especially in light of last week’s disappointing GDP report.

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