Tuesday, May 15, 2007

FX Awaits Data

At 2:00 AM Germany Q1 Flash GDP q/q (exp 0.3%, prev 0.9%)
Germany Q1 Flash GDP y/y (exp 3.1%, prev 3.5%)
At 3:15 AM Swiss March Retail Sales (exp 4.0%, prev 4.5%)
At 4:30 AM UK April RPI-x m/m (exp 0.5%, prev 0.6%)
UK April RPI-x y/y (exp 3.7%, prev 3.9%)
UK April RPI m/m (exp 0.5%, prev 0.6%)
UK April RPI y/y (exp 4.5%, prev 4.8%)
UK April CPI m/m (exp 0.3%, prev 0.5%)
UK April CPI y/y (exp 2.8%, prev 3.1%)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone Q1 flash GDP q/q (exp 0.5%, prev 0.9%)
Eurozone Q1 flash GDP y/y (exp 2.9%, prev 3.3%)
At 8:30 AM Canada March Manufacturing Shipments (exp 1.0%, prev -0.2%)
US April Real Earnings (exp -0.3%, prev -0.1%)
May NY Fed Manufacturing Survey (exp 8.0, prev 3.8)
US April CPI-x m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
US April CPI-x y/y (exp 2.4%, prev 2.5%)
US April CPI m/m (exp 0.5%, prev 0.6%)
US April CPI y/y (exp 2.7%, prev 2.8%)
At 9:00 AM US March Net Long-Term TIC flows (exp $75.0 bln, prev $58.1 bln)
At 1:00 PM US May NAHB Survey (exp 33.0, prev 33.0)

The major fx pairs remain largely unchanged ahead of a barrage of economic data in the session ahead. The greenback trades higher against the euro at 1.3546 and sterling at 1.9790. Inflation and growth data will be the primary focus, and will likely guide direction in the currency market.

US economic reports slated for release include April CPI, May New York Fed manufacturing survey, April real earnings, March TICS data, and the May NAHB survey. Consumer price inflation is seen easing slightly in April, with the headline number down to 0.5% from 0.6% in the previous month and 2.7%, down from 2.8% in the previous year. The core readings for CPI are seen mixed with the monthly figure up marginally to 0.2%, while the annualized figure is seen down to 2.4%. The NY Fed manufacturing survey is forecasted to post a sharp gain for May, rising to 8.0 from 3.8 previously. Also forecasted to improve will be the March net long-term TIC flows, seen climbing to $75.0-bln from $58.1-bln. Meanwhile, the NAHB housing survey is estimated to remain unchanged at 33.0.

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