Friday, May 11, 2007

FX Awaits Central Bank Decisions

At 1:00 AM Japan April Economy Watchers Diffusion Index (exp n/f, prev 50.8)
At 2:00 AM Germany April WPI m/m (exp 0.7%, prev 0.5%)
Germany April WPI y/y (exp 2.8%, prev 3.1%)
At 4:30 AM UK March Trade Balance (exp –6.68 bln stg, prev –6.791 bln stg)
UK March Manufacturing Production m/m (exp 0.5%, prev –0.6%)
UK March Manufacturing Production y/y (exp 0.9%, prev 1.2%)
UK March Industrial Production m/m (exp 0.4%, prev –0.2%)
UK March Industrial Production y/y (exp 0.0%, prev 0.3%)
At 7:00 AM Bank of England Policy Decision (exp 5.50%, prev 5.25%)
At 7:45 AM European Central Bank Policy Decision (exp 3.75%, prev 3.75%)
At 8:30 AM ECB President Trichet Press Conference
US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 315k, prev 305k)
US March Trade Deficit (exp $60.0 bln, prev $58.44 bln)
Canada March Trade Balance (exp C$5.5 bln, prev C$4.83 bln)
At 10:00 AM US April Federal Budget (exp $136.7 bln, prev $118.84 bln)

The dollar holds steady following the FOMC’s unchanged stance, which was largely anticipated by markets, and hovers near its multi-week highs versus the euro around 1.3530 and buoyed above 120 against the yen. The Fed provided little new information to trade on, as the statement was nearly identical to its March release. The FOMC reiterated the Board’s view that risks to inflation remain a priority over concerns of slowing growth -- suggesting a neutral stance over the coming few months unless the pace of deterioration in economic growth exceeds expectations.

In addition to central bank policy decisions from the BoE and ECB, traders will also digest US economic reports, consisting of weekly jobless claims, March trade deficit and the April Federal Budget. Weekly jobless claims are forecasted to edge up to 315k from 305k, while the trade deficit is seen expanding in March to $60.0 billion versus a $58.44 bilion deficit previously. Later in the afternoon will be the release of the April Federal Budget, seen rising to $136.billion, up from $118.84 billion in the month prior. The primary focus for US data releases will be on Friday, with retail sales and the producer price index both slated to be softer than previous releases.

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